Energy = Intelligence

Power and Progress

The 21st century is changing rapidly in real-time.

The sensitive among us are picking up a major acceleration in the rate of acceleration. We are linear beings living in exponential times. Our minds aren’t designed to process what’s happening.

That means more shocks are coming.

Of all the dramatic shifts I think it’s easily the plummeting cost of energy and the even steeper drop in the cost of intelligence that will have the most impact on the world. Thanks to AI and Robotics, energy and intelligence costs are forever correlated and forever dropping. We will explain why in more detail below. It is not an exaggeration to say this interplay will shape the future of our species.

The rise of robotics and AI isn't merely a technological revolution; it's a fundamental shift in how we interact with the world. This shift is driven by the intertwined forces of energy and intelligence, each fueling the other in a dynamic relationship that's shaping our societies, economies, and even our understanding of intelligence itself.

Energy and Intelligence: A Symbiotic Relationship

While energy powers intelligent machines, intelligence simultaneously optimizes energy production and consumption.

Let’s look at all that artificial intelligence is achieving on the power generation and storage front. AI optimizes the placement of solar panels and wind turbines, predicts energy generation based on weather patterns, and manages energy storage systems. AI can analyze energy demand in real-time, balance loads, and prevent outages, leading to a more resilient and efficient energy grid. These systems can control lighting, heating, and cooling systems, optimizing energy consumption based on occupancy and environmental conditions.

Beyond optimization, the capabilities of AI extend to design and engineering. AI can analyze vast datasets of material science data to identify promising materials and designs for next-generation solar cells, batteries, and other energy technologies.

This symbiotic relationship between energy and intelligence creates a positive feedback loop that accelerates technological advancement and drives down costs. As AI improves energy efficiency and reduces costs, it further accelerates the development and deployment of AI-powered robots and systems, leading to even greater energy optimization and technological advancement.

The Energy Imperative

Energy has been the driver of human progress since the dawn of civilization.

Energy is the lifeblood that courses through the veins of our societies, powering everything from the most basic necessities of life to the most complex technological innovations. Access to abundant and affordable energy has consistently been a key determinant of economic prosperity, technological advancement, and overall societal well-being.

Throughout history, the harnessing and utilization of energy have marked major turning points in human development. The control of fire provided early humans with warmth, protection, and the ability to cook food, fundamentally changing their way of life and paving the way for the development of agriculture and settled communities. The invention of the water wheel and windmill harnessed the power of nature, enabling advancements in agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation.

The Industrial Revolution, arguably the most transformative period in human history, was fundamentally driven by the discovery and exploitation of fossil fuels – coal, oil, and natural gas. These concentrated energy sources provided the power needed to fuel factories, drive machinery, and enable mass production, leading to unprecedented economic growth and urbanization. The availability of cheap and abundant fossil fuels shaped geopolitical landscapes, with nations possessing rich reserves gaining significant economic and political advantages.

Building upon the foundation laid by fossil fuels, the contemporary era, the digital revolution, has ushered in an unprecedented reliance on electricity, a versatile and easily transportable form of energy. The proliferation of computers, smartphones, data centers, and the internet has created an ever-growing demand for electricity, further highlighting the critical role of energy in modern society. The digital age, with its reliance on complex computing and data processing, has amplified the importance of energy efficiency and the need for sustainable energy sources.

Historically, empires and nations with access to abundant energy resources have enjoyed a distinct advantage. They could fuel their industries, power their transportation networks, and support growing populations, leading to economic prosperity and military strength. This energy advantage continues to be relevant in the digital age, where access to reliable and affordable electricity is essential for powering the infrastructure that underpins our interconnected world. The increasing electrification of various sectors, from transportation to manufacturing, further emphasizes the importance of energy access and affordability. Nations that can secure a stable and sustainable energy supply will be better positioned to compete in the global economy and ensure a high quality of life for their citizens.

Looking ahead, the development and deployment of sustainable energy solutions will be crucial for maintaining global stability and driving future progress.

Then we went from electrification to cognification.

We started giving machines the ability to think.

The Rise of Artificial Intelligence

We are in the midst of a profound tech renaissance characterized by the rapid rise of artificial intelligence.

the OG transformer paper

This transformative technology is permeating various sectors, automating tasks that were once thought to be the exclusive domain of human intelligence. From autonomous vehicles navigating complex traffic scenarios to sophisticated algorithms deciphering medical images with remarkable accuracy, AI is reshaping industries and redefining the boundaries of what's possible.

At the heart of this revolution lies machine learning (ML), a subfield of AI that enables systems to learn from data without explicit programming.

ML algorithms, particularly deep learning models with their multiple layers of artificial neural networks, have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in tasks such as image recognition, natural language processing, and decision-making. The development of novel architectures like Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for image processing and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) for sequential data analysis has significantly broadened the applications of AI.

The exponential growth in computing power, particularly the development of specialized hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) and Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), has enabled the training of increasingly complex and sophisticated AI models. These powerful processors can handle the massive computational demands of deep learning, allowing researchers to train models on vast datasets and achieve breakthroughs in AI capabilities.

The availability of massive datasets, the fabled “Big Data” is another crucial enabler of the AI revolution. These datasets provide the raw material for training ML algorithms, allowing them to learn patterns, make predictions, and improve their performance over time. The proliferation of data from various sources, including sensors, social media, and scientific experiments, has created a fertile ground for AI development.

We have more sensors than ever before, operating at greater sensitivities while capturing data of richer and richer fidelity every day.

Our data cup officially ran over when we began generating synthetic data. Now with generative AI we build data factories - and we do. To train AI and much else.

Beyond the increase in raw computing power, significant advancements in the algorithms themselves have driven the AI revolution. Innovations in areas like reinforcement learning, where agents learn through trial and error, and generative adversarial networks (GANs), which can generate new data instances, have pushed the boundaries of AI capabilities.

Suddenly we gained the superpower of creating data with GAN earlier generative ML technologies. The most recent LLM variants are beautiful new methods to achieve what has long been possible.

However now the data that is created can be so fine tuned that it can perfectly take any shape you want, which means it makes very valuable synthetic data.

This data gives firms the ability to build more powerful AI models - that endless infinite loop up the intelligence curves has already begun.

Models are beyond the thinking hurdle and have even cleared most people’s definition of reasoning, too.

The Decreasing Cost of Intelligence: Implications and Opportunities

The decreasing cost of intelligence, driven by these advancements, has profound implications.

AI has the potential to significantly amplify productivity across various sectors. By automating routine tasks, AI can free up human workers to focus on more complex and creative endeavors, leading to increased efficiency and output. For instance, in manufacturing, AI-powered robots can handle repetitive assembly line tasks, while human workers can focus on quality control and process optimization.

AI can accelerate innovation by analyzing vast amounts of data and identifying patterns that would be impossible for humans to discern. This can lead to breakthroughs in fields like drug discovery, materials science, and engineering. AI algorithms can analyze scientific literature, experimental data, and simulations to identify promising research directions and accelerate the development of new technologies.

AI can be leveraged to address complex societal challenges, such as climate change, poverty, and disease. For example, AI can optimize energy consumption, predict natural disasters, and personalize medical treatments, leading to more sustainable and equitable solutions.

By understanding the driving forces behind this revolution and embracing its potential, we can harness the power of AI.

Robotics, AI, and the Energy Dependence

Robotics and AI are manifestations of embodied and disembodied intelligence, respectively. Robots require energy to power their movements and actions, while the AI generating the robots actions relies on vast computing power, which translates to significant energy consumption.

This dependence on energy creates a fundamental link between the cost and availability of energy and the progress of robotics and AI. Cheap, abundant energy fuels innovation, allowing for the development of more sophisticated robots and AI systems.

AI, particularly the training of large language models and complex neural networks, demands significant computational power and high energy consumption. Counterbalancing that — AI also optimizes energy production and consumption, enhancing the efficiency of renewable energy sources, improving grid management, reducing energy waste, and accelerating the development of new energy technologies.

AI is also playing a crucial role in developing advanced battery storage systems, which are essential for integrating intermittent renewable energy sources into the grid. AI algorithms analyze battery performance data, predict degradation patterns, and optimize charging and discharging strategies to enhance battery lifespan and efficiency. AI accelerates the discovery of new battery materials with higher energy density, faster charging rates, and improved safety characteristics.

This creates a positive feedback loop: as AI improves energy efficiency and reduces costs, it lowers inference cost which makes breakthroughs less expensive / more frequent occurrences which further accelerates AI development and deployment, propelling both fields forward.

Forever.

Here’s a simple analogy:

A skilled musician (AI) pushes the boundaries of their instrument (energy infrastructure/technology), demanding more nuanced tones, greater range, and improved responsiveness. Instrument makers (energy researchers) respond by creating better instruments, which in turn inspire the musician to explore new musical styles and techniques (new more powerful AI models).

This constant interplay between the musician and their instrument leads to the evolution of both music (energy solutions) and the instrument itself (AI capabilities).

The net result is way better music.

Now let’s talk power.

Nuclear Power and Materials Science: Essential Components

Nuclear power, a low-carbon source of energy, plays a crucial role in this landscape.

I geeked out about Nuclear in a recent article.

Its immense energy density, continuous operation, and lack of carbon dioxide emissions during operation make it a reliable and sustainable option. By transitioning to a diverse energy mix featuring nuclear power alongside renewables, we can ensure a stable and sustainable power supply for the AI revolution.

Nuclear power boasts an unparalleled energy density compared to other energy sources. A single uranium fuel pellet can produce as much energy as 800 kg of coal, making nuclear power a highly efficient way to generate electricity with a minimal land footprint. This high energy density is crucial for meeting the substantial power requirements of AI and other advanced technologies. Unlike intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind, nuclear power plants operate continuously, providing a stable and reliable baseload power supply. This consistency is essential for supporting critical infrastructure and ensuring a steady flow of energy for computationally intensive AI applications.

AI-driven breakthroughs in materials science are also revolutionizing energy technologies. From developing more efficient solar panels to creating advanced battery storage systems, AI is accelerating the development of innovative materials that enhance energy efficiency and drive down costs.

The nuclear industry is continuously evolving, with advanced reactor designs offering enhanced safety features, improved efficiency, and reduced waste generation. These next-generation reactors, such as Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and molten salt reactors, hold the promise of further minimizing the environmental impact and increasing the flexibility of nuclear power.

Nuclear is vital to getting our cost of intelligence as low as possible.

While AI may displace our currently existing jobs, it also has the potential to boost overall productivity and drive innovation in ways that will create new companies, industries and entire sectors. There are branches of science and engineering we are just beginning to understand exist. We are so early in this adventure. By automating routine tasks, AI can free up human workers to focus on more creative, strategic, and complex endeavors. With AI’s help we will use this cognitive surplus to discover those undiscovered branches of the universe.

New business creation rates are at all-time highs and they will soar much higher with agentic AGI around the corner.

The convergence of rapidly dropping intelligence costs and energy costs presents immense opportunities. The two curves of energy and AI are intertwined, shaping the trajectory of human civilization.

These plummeting cost curves will drive progress and prosperity for all. Our objective is to maximize the utility generated and ensure a whole-of-society benefit from the science non-fiction world we have built.

This future is not set in stone; we actively shape the future with our choices.

By understanding the relationship between energy and intelligence, we can guide the development and deployment of robotics and AI in a way that benefits all of humanity. If we are smart we can ride this rising tide of creativity, engineering innovation and industrial capacity boom thanks to AI and robotics, and all that they transform over the next few years.

These are early but GREAT days in the Singularity. Cherish them.

I know I am.

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I started Life in the Singularity in May 2023 to track all the accelerating changes in AI/ML, robotics, quantum computing and the rest of the technologies accelerating humanity forward into the future. I’m an investor in over a dozen technology companies and I needed a canvas to unfold and examine all the acceleration and breakthroughs across science and technology.

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